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Final Poll: Perdue Holds Lead; Handel Gains Momentum, Tied with Kingston for Second

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ATLANTA, Ga. - Final InsiderAdvantage/FOX5/Morris News Poll of Republican U.S. Senate Primary:

Perdue Holds Lead; Handel Gains Momentum, Tied with Kingston for Second

The final InsiderAdvantage survey of the Republican race for Senate was conducted by telephone the evening of May 18. The survey of 852 registered likely voters was weighted for age, race, and gender and has a margin of error of 3.3%. (More at www.insideradvantage.com )

The results were:

David Perdue: 26%

Karen Handel: 17%

Jack Kingston: 17%

Phil Gingrey: 11%

Paul Broun: 10%

Other: 1%

Undecided: 18%

InsiderAdvantage CEO/Fox 5 Political Analyst Matt Towery:

“Every major candidate other than Handel and Gingrey lost a bit of their support from where they were in our poll of last week. Handel held her numbers, suggesting that she either has momentum going into the vote or is at least managing to hold on to her support levels. The undecided vote increased as Kingston lost more than two points and Perdue slid by one. It appears Phil Gingrey might have picked up some of their support and could be rising towards at least a strong fourth place finish or even nudging for third. But Perdue continues to look strong enough to finish in first place.

“The real issue is that of Handel and Kingston as they battle for a second place position. Handel launched broadcast television ads on TV in metro-Atlanta and that, along with her strong digital and automated phone call campaign might be accounting for not only her strength in holding her vote, but the movement of more voters to the undecided column. Typically when we see the undecided total spike right before an election, it means that some voters are abandoning their earlier choice and are either thinking about switching horses or are considering not voting. My guess is this is a little of both. And given that most candidates gave up ground, the two most likely recipients of those votes would be Handel and Gingrey.

“Remembering that a good number of votes are already in, Handel’s performance will have to be strong to make up lost ground. But the polling suggest she might do that. We will be watching the vote-rich area of North Fulton, as it will likely report late Tuesday night and may decide whether Kingston or Handel wins the second place spot. I expect the earliest numbers to be reported on Tuesday to favor Perdue and Kingston. It’s as we inch towards Fulton that the race for second place may tighten.”

Conducted with our partner OpinionSavvy  www.opinionsavvy.com.

Target Population

Likely 2014 Republican primary voters in Georgia

Sampling Method

Registered voters in Georgia were selected randomly and surveyed on the evening of May 18, 2014 using an interactive voice response system.

Weighting

The poll was weighted for age, race, and gender according to 2010 voter data (from GA Secretary of State) and US census data.

Number of Respondents

852

Margin of Error

±3.36% (95% confidence)


1.             If you plan to vote in the Republican primary and the election were held today, who would you vote for as the Republican nominee for Governor?



Age

Race

Gender

Political Affiliation

Total

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Afr-Am

Hispanic

Other

Male

Female

Republican

Democrat

Independent

(Base)

(852)

(58)

(143)

(265)

(385)

(816)

(11)

(13)

(12)

(412)

(440)

(572)

(22)

(247)


%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Deal

62.1

86.2

65.0

50.9

64.8

63.9

30.0

28.6

8.3

65.9

58.3

67.3

9.5

54.3

Barge

5.1

0.0

0.0

11.7

3.1

5.2

0.0

0.0

8.3

6.8

3.6

3.8

9.5

8.1

Pennington

9.9

6.9

8.4

11.7

9.9

8.4

40.0

50.0

41.7

12.9

7.3

7.0

4.8

17.4

Undecided

22.9

6.9

26.6

25.7

22.2

22.6

30.0

21.4

41.7

14.4

30.8

21.9

76.2

20.2


2.             If you plan to vote in the Republican primary and the election were held today, whom would you vote for as the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate?



Age

Race

Gender

Political Affiliation

Total

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Afr-Am

Hispanic

Other

Male

Female

Republican

Democrat

Independent

(Base)

(852)

(58)

(143)

(265)

(385)

(816)

(11)

(13)

(12)

(412)

(440)

(572)

(22)

(247)


%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Broun

9.8

0.0

19.3

7.2

9.6

10.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

11.7

8.2

9.3

0.0

11.7

Gardner

.3

0.0

0.0

.8

0.0

.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

.8

Gingrey

11.1

6.8

2.1

11.7

14.8

10.2

36.4

28.6

33.3

7.8

14.1

11.4

13.0

10.1

Grayson

.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.6

.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.0

.5

.7

0.0

.8

Handel

17.4

6.8

18.6

19.2

17.1

16.9

18.2

21.4

41.7

19.9

15.0

15.7

17.4

20.6

Kingston

16.7

42.4

6.9

19.6

14.3

17.3

9.1

0.0

8.3

15.0

18.2

19.1

17.4

10.9

Perdue

26.0

0.0

26.2

29.8

27.5

26.6

0.0

28.6

8.3

27.9

24.3

29.9

8.7

19.8

Undecided

18.1

44.1

26.9

11.7

15.1

17.9

36.4

21.4

8.3

16.3

19.8

14.0

43.5

25.1


3.             Age



Race

Gender

Political Affiliation

Total

White

Afr-Am

Hispanic

Other

Male

Female

Republican

Democrat

Independent

(Base)

(852)

(816)

(11)

(13)

(12)

(412)

(440)

(572)

(22)

(247)


%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

18-29

6.8

6.1

0.0

0.0

66.7

6.3

7.3

4.9

0.0

12.1

30-44

16.8

16.9

45.5

0.0

0.0

21.5

12.5

16.3

13.0

19.4

44-64

31.2

30.1

45.5

100.0

16.7

32.0

30.3

30.1

39.1

32.7

65+

45.2

46.8

9.1

0.0

16.7

40.2

49.9

48.7

47.8

35.9


4.             Race



Age

Gender

Political Affiliation

Total

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Male

Female

Republican

Democrat

Independent

(Base)

(852)

(58)

(143)

(265)

(385)

(412)

(440)

(572)

(22)

(247)


%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

White

95.8

86.2

96.5

92.5

99.2

95.9

95.7

97.4

68.2

94.0

African-American

1.3

0.0

3.5

1.9

.3

1.5

1.1

.3

13.6

2.4

Hispanic/Latino

1.6

0.0

0.0

4.9

0.0

1.7

1.4

1.2

13.6

1.6

Other

1.4

13.8

0.0

.8

.5

1.0

1.8

1.0

4.5

2.0


5.             Gender



Age

Race

Political Affiliation

Total

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Afr-Am

Hispanic

Other

Republican

Democrat

Independent

(Base)

(852)

(58)

(143)

(265)

(385)

(816)

(11)

(13)

(12)

(572)

(22)

(247)


%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Male

48.4

44.8

61.8

49.8

43.1

48.4

54.5

53.8

33.3

43.5

36.4

60.3

Female

51.6

55.2

38.2

50.2

56.9

51.6

45.5

46.2

66.7

56.5

63.6

39.7


6.             Political Affiliation



Age

Race

Gender

Total

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Afr-Am

Hispanic

Other

Male

Female

(Base)

(852)

(58)

(143)

(265)

(385)

(816)

(11)

(13)

(12)

(412)

(440)


%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Republican

68.0

48.3

64.6

65.6

73.5

69.2

18.2

50.0

50.0

61.3

74.3

Democrat

2.7

0.0

2.1

3.4

2.9

1.9

27.3

21.4

8.3

2.0

3.2

Independent

29.4

51.7

33.3

30.9

23.5

28.9

54.5

28.6

41.7

36.7

22.5



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